Depletion-based stock reduction analysis: a catch-based method for determining sustainable yields for data-poor fish stocks

We describe a method for determining reasonable yield and management reference points for data-poor fisheries in cases where approximate catches are known from the beginning of exploitation. The method, called Depletion-Based Stock Reduction Analysis (DB-SRA), merges stochastic Stock-Reduction Analysis with Depletion-Corrected Average Catch. Data requirements include estimates of historical annual catches, approximate natural mortality rate and age at maturity. A production function is specified based on general fishery knowledge of the relative location of maximum productivity and the relationship of MSY fishing rate to the natural mortality rate. This leaves unfished biomass as the only unknown parameter, which can be estimated given a designated relative depletion level near the end of the time series. The method produces probability distributions of management reference points concerning yield and biomass. Uncertainties in natural mortality, stock dynamics, optimal harvest rates, and recent stock status are incorporated using Monte Carlo exploration. Comparison of model outputs to data-rich stock assessments suggests that the method is effective for estimating sustainable yields for data-poor stocks.