Model-based, ecosystem risk assessments of MPA scenarios in Planning Domain 1

The Scientific Committee has previously considered results from the Krill-Predator-Fishery Model to assess the risks of distributing catch limits for krill among small-scale management units (SSMUs) in Subareas 48.1, 48.2, and 48.3. Here we describe a method to update the parameterizations of this model and conduct comparable risk assessments at smaller spatial scales. We use the method to assess some of the risks associated with two marine protected area (MPA) scenarios in Planning Domain 1, one representing the MPA proposed by Argentina and Chile. We conclude that the MPA proposed by Argentina and Chile can, if desired, be improved by changing the sizes of the coastal buffers that define the General Protection Zones around the South Shetland and South Orkney Islands. We also conclude that the proposed MPA seems likely to satisfy multiple objectives simultaneously.