Predicting fishing ground accessibility in the Antarctic Weddell Sea

Sea ice is a major constraint of fishery performance in the Southern Ocean seasonal sea ice zone. We use sea ice concentration data from 2002-2017 that cover the wider Weddell Sea to establish statistical models of (i) accessibility, i.e. the probability that a particular area is navigable by fishery vessels at a given time, and of (ii) repeated accessibility, i.e. the probability that a particular area is navigable by fishery vessels at a given time and again within the following two years, as requested by CCAMLR research fishery regulations. Our findings indicate that under the actual sea ice conditions almost 50% of the entire WSMPA Planning Area is not suitable for fishery vessels at any time of the year, while there are high spatiotemporal variability in repeated accessibility in particular areas such as along the ice shelf of the eastern and south-eastern Weddell Sea. We consider our models to constitute valuable, riskreducing planning tools in the further development of fishery research as well as of ship-bound tourism in the wider Weddell Sea area.