Scientific contribution to the 2016 review of Conservation Measure 51-07: Part 2 – outcomes from the application of the risk assessment framework for distributing the krill trigger level in Area 48

This paper presents the outcomes from the application of the risk assessment framework for distributing the krill trigger level in Area 48, which was described in Part 1 of this work (WG-FSA-16/47). This second part has two additional components of work: (i) results of the analyses using the data within the risk assessment framework, and (ii) a discussion of the implications of this work, including consideration of the matters raised by WG-EMM in 2016.  The framework presented in Part 1 is shown to enable assembling relevant data on krill, predators, management and the fishery to assess the risks of disproportionate local effects of the krill fishery.  It can be used to readily explore the potential consequences of different fishing scenarios given the state of knowledge.  The results presented here provide the input needed for the review of CM51-07 and the means by which further scenarios may be explored in that review.  The assessment primarily uses two factors to underpin the index of risk – the potential for fishing effects in areas with higher proportions of young krill (source areas) and predation pressure which is a measure of the potential for competition in local areas.  Given the scenarios here, Subarea 48.1 and, some of its SSMUs in particular, are potentially exposed to disproportionate effects of fishing, which may be occurring at present because of the much larger catch possible under CM51-07 than the baseline would indicate would be appropriate.   This is consistent with the earlier findings of Watters et al (2013) in which FOOSA was used to explore the consequences of different harvest strategies on SSMUs in Area 48.