Preliminary modelling of potential climate-change impacts on krill and a krill-dependent predator in CCAMLR Subareas 48.1 to 48.3

Given their ecological and economic importance, understanding how climate change will affect krill resources and the marine ecosystem in Antarctic waters is critical. Previous research has demonstrated possible climate change impacts on krill habitat and growth. In this preliminary study, we assessed the potential consequences of these impacts for both the krill stock and its dependent predators using a peer-reviewed krill-predator-fishery ecosystem dynamics model. Initial results demonstrate the potential for projected temperature changes to negatively affect the individual weight and population biomass of krill as well as the abundance of krill-dependent predators. These outcomes have implications for our expectations about krill resources, and the larger Southern Ocean ecosystem. Further exploration is planned.