WG-SAM-14

The Scientific Committee established the Working Group on Statistics, Assessments and Modelling (WG-SAM) during CCAMLR-XXV (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraph 13.12), with a directed emphasis on developing, refining and evaluating quantitative approaches for all Antarctic marine living resources managed by CCAMLR. WG-SAM serves as a flexible technical group to address quantitative issues relevant to WG-FSA, WG-EMM and ad hoc WG-IMAF (SC-CAMLR-XXV, paragraphs 13.4 to 13.8). WG-SAM is to provide advice necessary for the work of these working groups and the Scientific Committee.

Meeting papers submitted to WG-SAM, along with presentations and analyses conducted during the meeting, will form the basis for discussion and advice.

The terms of reference for WG-SAM are:

To provide advice to the Scientific Committee and its working groups on:

(i) quantitative assessment methods, statistical procedures and modelling approaches for the conservation of Antarctic marine living resources; and

(ii) the implementation and data requirements of such methods, procedures and approaches.

Welcome to participants and overview of facilities, Secretariat’s offices, computer support, Internet access and extracurricular activities.

Amendments to and adoption of the meeting agenda, assignment of meeting papers to agenda items, appointment of rapporteurs and procedures for the preparation of the report and establishment of ad hoc subgroups if necessary.

The agenda has been structured to account for the areas of work most likely to engage WG-SAM in 2014.

Methods for assessing stock status and yield have been agreed and are in use for Dissostichus spp., Champsocephalus gunnari and Euphausia superba for the main areas in which these species are fished. Proposals to modify these methods, or to consider alternative methods, will be reviewed under this item.

A review of progress towards updated integrated assessments of toothfish for the following subareas and divisions:

(a)    D. eleginoides in Division 58.5.1 (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.101)

(b)    D. eleginoides in Division 58.5.2 (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.112)

(c)    D. eleginoides in Subarea 58.6 (Crozet) (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.123)

(d)    D. eleginoides in Subareas 58.6/58.7 (Prince Edward/Marion Is), (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.130)

(e)    D. mawsoni in Subarea 88.2 (SSRUs C–H) (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraphs 3.167 to 3.169).

A review of stock assessment methodologies used in CCAMLR’s integrated toothfish assessments (WG-FSA-13, paragraphs 4.103 to 4.105; SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraphs 3.69 to 3.76) to include:

(a)    data weighting and screening

(b)    comparison of MCMC and covariance resampling methods

(c)    alternative methods for estimating cryptic biomass

(d)    development of a standard set of diagnostics

(e)    version control in CASAL

(f)     external review of assessments.

A review of mechanisms by which CCAMLR decision rules are implemented to improve the Commission’s ability to meet the objectives of the Convention (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.108; CCAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 5.20)

Developments in integrated stock assessment methodologies for krill (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.32)

A number of other issues were raised in 2013 that could be covered under other work. However, these issues will be given lower priority at the 2014 meeting due to the heavy workload. This includes a review of potential stock linkages for toothfish stocks in Subareas 48.3 and 48.4; 88.1 and 88.2 and 88.3; 58.6 and 58.7; and Divisions 58.5.1 and 58.5.2 (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 4.100), comparison of biomass estimates derived from local depletion versus Petersen tag estimators (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 3.33), evaluation of alternative lower catch limit reference points for icefish (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 4.6), recalculation of seabed areas (WG-FSA-13, paragraph 6.11) and review and revision of the Fishery Reports (SC-CAMLR-XXXII, paragraph 3.54).

A requirement to submit research plans in notifications for new and exploratory fisheries in areas other than Subareas 88.1 and 88.2 was adopted by the Commission at its 2011 meeting (CCAMLR, 2011). WG-SAM will briefly review research carried out under these plans in 2013/14 and the proposal for research to be carried out for 2014/15 to determine whether they continue to meet the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research as laid out in SC-CAMLR-XXX, Annex 5, paragraphs 2.25 and 2.26 using the format provided in Table 6 of WG-SAM-2012 where appropriate. Because most of the research plans are year 1 or year 2 of a multi-year program, priority will be given to reviewing new proposals and to proposals where there is a large discrepancy between the observed and expected numbers of tag recoveries.

Review of scientific research proposals on commercial fish stocks in closed areas, areas with zero catch limits, and Subareas 88.1 and 88.2 etc.

Scientific research carried out in 2014/15 will be reviewed and proposals for further research on toothfish stocks in these areas evaluated. WG-SAM will review any new research proposals to determine whether they continue to meet the requirements for CCAMLR-sponsored research using the format provided in Table 6 of WG-SAM-2012 where appropriate.  Because most of the research plans are year 1 or year 2 of a multi-year program, priority will be given to reviewing new proposals and to proposals where there is a large discrepancy between the observed and expected numbers of tag recoveries.

Participants are invited to identify issues for consideration under other business.

WG-SAM provides advice to each of the working groups and to the Scientific Committee on statistics, assessments and modelling. Specific advice that has been requested will be summarised in this agenda item following general discussion in other agenda items. Advice will also be given to the Scientific Committee on the priorities apparent during the meeting for the development and refinement of quantitative methods.

As is usual practice in meetings of the Scientific Committee and its working groups, rapporteurs will draft sections of the report according to general guidelines for its production. The Secretariat is responsible for formatting, editing and circulation of the report. Any proposed changes to the report prior to report adoption need to be arranged through the rapporteurs, who will then provide the appropriate changes to the Secretariat. Adoption of the report will be conducted interactively using a video projector and support from the Secretariat.

Discussion will conclude by midday Thursday, allowing Thursday afternoon and Friday morning for report preparation and reading. Report adoption will be on Friday afternoon.